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After losing the 2025 Canadian federal election, Pierre Poilievre (Battle River—Crowfoot, AB) will undergo a leadership review, as per the Conservative Party of Canada’s (CPC) constitution. Although it was originally predicted that he could win the leadership review with at least 80% of support, recent caucus developments have cast doubt on this forecast. The Conservative leader did not reveal a minimum level of support needed to remain in his position, and he may still choose to resign even if a majority of CPC members express their support. For instance, former Progressive Conservative Leader Joe Clark resigned in the wake of the 1983 leadership review in spite of receiving approval from about two-thirds of members.
From January 29-31, 2026, CPC delegates from across the country will gather in Calgary, Alberta to decide on the fate of Mr. Poilievre. Having spent a significant portion of his life in Alberta, and currently representing a riding from the province, locating the venue in “Wild Rose Country” may provide home advantage to Mr. Poilievre. However, this regional advantage will be mitigated by the CPC’s voting system, in which a maximum of ten delegates from each Conservative riding association across the country (three hundred and fourty-three, in total) will be selected to vote. Be that as it may, travel logistics may prove challenging for delegates representing ridings far from Calgary, making it potentially difficult for these delegates to vote.
When analyzing the results of the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Election, the event which put Mr. Poilievre at the helm of the party, it is clear that Mr. Poilievre’s support is especially strong in the Western provinces and in ridings where the party is weakest. To that effect, ridings with low CPC membership numbers wield a disproportionate influence in the leadership vote relative to their influence in the broader CPC, as all riding associations hold the same weight. Thus, this may amplify dissenting voices in areas that are not typically Conservative.
Criticisms of Pierre Poilievre’s Leadership
In the past few weeks, two events have called Mr. Poilievre’s leadership style into question. First, Dimitri Soudas, former Director of Communications to PM Stephen Harper, responded to Mr Poilievre’s framing of the RCMP as “despicable” for failing to incriminate PM Justin Trudeau. Mr. Soudas claimed that the comments were unconstructive and undermined the work of democratic institutions –in line with some moderate Conservative MPs.
In addition, two Conservative MPs announced their decision to leave the CPC caucus. Chris d’Entremont (Acadie—Annapolis, NS) joined the Liberal benches in a practice often referred to as floor-crossing, invoking disagreements over Poilievre’s rhetoric rooted in what Mr. d’Entremont refers to as “complaint”. In addition, MP Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend, AB) announced that his resignation as MP would be effective next spring. His statement came after much speculation of a second potential floor-crossing.
Caucus Mechanisms Can Enable a Leadership Review
Critics from the Conservative bench can also express their disapproval through caucus mechanisms, under Section 49.5 of the Reform Act, 2014, twenty percent of conservative MPs can submit a petition to trigger a leadership review. In the subsequent leadership review, Mr. Poilievre would be ousted if a majority of MPs elect to do so. If this were to happen, it would not set a precedent, as former CPC leader Erin O’Toole was voted out in 2022. However, in Mr. O’Toole’s case, his brand of moderate conservatism lost the favour of a majority of CPC MPs. In Poilievre’s case, conversely, his platform is most likely to be challenged by more moderate Conservatives. As of this writing, a few MPs have expressed their frustration with Mr Poilievre’s leadership–only time will tell if more caucus members join their efforts to trigger a review.
As such, Mr. Poilievre should be set to win the leadership review, considering that the vote will take place in an area of Canada in which he can reliably count on for support. However, since critics are increasingly numerous and since the voting system may favor areas that have not been advantageous to Mr. Poilievre in the past, an “easy victory” for the Alberta MP is far from certain. Moreover, his caucus can decide his fate through voting mechanisms even if he survives the leadership review, which raises doubts on the stability of his leadership. Most importantly, recent polling data suggests that he may enjoy the support of nearly 80% of CPC members, but his favorability ratings continue to plummet among the general electorate. Thus, if Mr. Poilievre passes his leadership test, but fails to take notice of his growing unfavorability rating; his longevity as CPC leader may once again be at stake for the next election.
Edited by Catriona Hayes Morris
The argument defended in this article is solely that of the author and does not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science, the Political Science Students’ Association, or the McGill Department of Political Science.
Featured image by Gorgo from Wikimedia Commons.
