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Following Trudeau era pipeline controversies, more Albertans believe that they deserve autonomy as they feel the federal restrictions on Alberta’s profitable oil sector diminish the province’s prosperity. This sovereignist position has been adopted by much of Alberta’s right-wing, including by the United Conservative Party (UCP) premier, Danielle Smith. During her term, Ms. Smith has promoted the policy platform dubbed Take Back Alberta (TBA), an organization with critical influence over the UCP. Most of the organization’s policies are unpopular with Albertans, and so it is worth examining why Ms. Smith is advancing them, and their possible impact on the future viability of the UCP in politics.
Origins of the Current Alberta Separatist Movement
The Alberta government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic faced significant backlash from groups who viewed pandemic-era public health policy as a threat to their personal freedom. This backlash manifested itself in TBA, a right-wing, grass roots organization, whose founding mission was to end Jason Kenney’s tenure as premier and subsequently reshape the UCP. Political observers widely credit TBA with organizing Mr. Kenney’s defeat in a May 2022 leadership review and with organizing Danielle Smith’s victory following the successive leadership race.
After successfully crowning a new premier, TBA looked further, aiming to gain control over the entire UCP organization. They worked to have their members nominated as candidates in electoral ridings before the May 2023 election, leading them to direct access to a large portion of the elected UCP caucus. Nomination requires individuals to apply with the party office in Calgary and then, if there are competing applicants, run in an election where members within a given riding vote. As this process takes significant amounts of grassroots mobilization, TBA’s success turned on their ability to leverage a focused and hyper-engaged base of supporters.
In November 2023, when half of the UCP governing board was up for election, TBA won every seat. Following later elections, they took over the entire board and the party’s presidency, although recently they lost five seats to another, more extremist, organization: the Alberta Prosperity Project. While the UCP board and president only have power over party operations, they are able to revoke the membership of party members, including the party’s leader. This power gives the board the ultimate say on what it means to be a United Conservative and who belongs in the party.
TBA infiltration of the UCP means that a singular political view dominates within a party that was originally created to bring together conservatives of all stripes. If the more progressive, federalist side of the UCP wanted to regain prominence within the party, they would have to find a cause that would mobilize moderate conservatives the way TBA rallied support behind opposition to Covid-19 era restrictions. Through organizing moderate conservatives around policy commitments the progressive conservatives within the UCP could strengthen their ability to contest riding level nominations before the next provincial election and eventually balance control within the party’s board. However, rallying moderates seems unlikely, as polarization has an oversized effect on political engagement, giving the minority of hyper-engaged radicals disproportionate power in shaping party policy.
TBA currently has crucial influence over the UCP’s operations, its caucus, and the premier’s office’s policy. Following the Annual General Meeting where TBA took over half of the UCP board, Mr. Parker posted on X that “[t]hose who do not listen to the grassroots or attempt to thwart their involvement in the decision making process, will be removed from power.” This threat is likely taken seriously by Ms. Smith, as journalist Jason Markusoff states “It is notable that before Parker turned against Mr. Kenney, he was a supporter. Smith would know that [Mr. Parker] was once a Kenney ally too, and that Take Back may not be afraid of challenging a UCP leader again.”
David Parker’s ability to shape the UCP leadership makes him a key stakeholder that Ms. Smith has to please. TBA’s ability to hold power over political processes in this way raises warning signs about the potentially undemocratic nature of many Canadian political parties’ internal processes.
The Alberta Next Panels
The power held by TBA within the UCP explains the more populist, sovereignist turn taken by the Alberta government during Ms. Smith’s tenure. Several of her policies come directly from the TBA playbook and her insistence on separatist policy—especially during last summer’s Alberta Next Panels—reflects Mr. Parker’s interest in Albertan secession from the Canadian state.
The Alberta Next Panels were marketed as an opportunity for Albertans to give input on provincial policy. The province organized town halls online and in person, where residents could give feedback on six sovereigntist topics. However, many participants felt that rather than inviting feedback, the province was set upon the construction of a mandate by creating the circumstances to document support from a selectively biased group. Teren Hazzard notes in the survey he completed, “[i]t does not give the option to say ‘I do not approve,’” but rather he was given the option to choose the reasons why he approved of a specific policy. Hazzard rightly asks “how can this survey ever be accurate if we have no choice to dissent?”
The Future of the UCP
The Alberta Next Panels’ bias and their explicitly sovereigntist recommendations appeal to a subsection of voters, however, most of Ms. Smith’s proposals have already gone through the public conversation and been rejected. Notably, 52 per cent of Albertans oppose the formation of a provincial police force and 63 per cent of Albertans oppose creating an Alberta Pension Plan, both proposed again in the recommendations coming out of Alberta Next. A previous Alberta government-run survey into public interest for an Alberta Pension Plan revealed widespread popular opposition. The CBC reports that “responses in the document called the idea ‘reckless’ and the survey ‘a farce,’” and yet Ms. Smith continues to advance this remarkably unpopular policy.
These unpopular policies threaten Ms. Smith’s premiership and her party’s future viability. While Ms. Smith likely feels forced by TBA’s dominant position within the UCP to push forward a separatist agenda, this right-wing shift distances her party from Alberta’s median voter. Recent polling reveals 75 per cent opposition to separatism within the province, and as a fundamental issue most people would not compromise on, its continued prevalence in Alberta politics creates a possibility the UCP could damage their reputation for the long term. Since Rachel Notley’s 2015 NDP victory, Albertan politics have been more competitive, and if Ms. Smith wants a future for the UCP; she will have to think about appealing to a wider coalition of voters, not just the hyper-engaged extremists in her party.
Edited by Catriona Hayes Morris
The argument defended in this article is solely that of the author and does not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science, the Political Science Students’ Association, or the McGill Department of Political Science.
Featured Image by Joli Rumi
