With news of Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States of America, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took to X (formerly Twitter) to congratulate him, stating, “Congratulations to Donald Trump on being elected President of the United States.”

Trudeau and Trump share a long history of diplomatic engagement, as the Canadian Prime Minister was already head of Cabinet during Trump’s prior presidency, from 2016 to 2020. Nevertheless, it is clear tensions have arisen between the two leaders over the years, affecting political dynamics in Canada.

For instance, during the G7 Summit in Charlevoix in 2018, Trudeau, believing Trump had already left, ridiculed Trump’s tariff plans. As a response, Trump directed a tweet at him, calling him “dishonest and weak.” Trump has since called Trudeau a “far-left lunatic”, in response to Trudeau’s management of the Freedom Convoy, an anti-vaccine mandate protest that largely supported Trump. As stated by former federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, “Donald Trump has a long enemies list, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on it.”

Economic Ramifications

Trudeau’s complaints regarding the president-elect’s tariff policy, which he had already brought up during the 2018 G7 Summit, remains a contentious issue between the two North American statesmen. Indeed, Trump has laid out a plan aiming to impose a minimum of 10 per cent tariffs on U.S. imports globally. For Canada, who exports around 77 per cent of their goods to the United States, this would likely result in high inflation rates: as companies face heavy taxation, they may raise their prices. Hence, if Trump implements these exchange barriers, Canada’s GDP could face a seven billion dollar dip.

Consequently, Trudeau has sought to reassure Canadians by invoking the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the previous North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with provisions aimed at further benefiting the United States. However, in 2026, the partners have the option to extend the deal until 2042. While Trump was the President who negotiated the deal in the first place, he has stated that the terms of the USMCA do not favour the United States enough, and hopes to renegotiate the deal.

Influence on Immigration

In terms of immigration, Trump has made it clear that he plans to deport at least twenty million people who live in the United States without formal authorization. In response to Trump’s deportation policies during his previous term, Trudeau tweeted in January 2017, “To those fleeing persecution, terror and war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” This statement led thousands of people to use Roxham Road to attempt to enter Canada. As this road leads into the province of Québec, it intensified tensions between Québec and the federal government. 

Indeed, immigration has been a contentious issue in Québec for decades, as it is a concurrent jurisdiction shared between the provincial and federal government. However, according to Section 95 of the Constitution Act of 1867, the federal government holds paramountcy, meaning it has the final authority on immigration matters. Because of this, Québec has historically fought for greater control over the number of immigrants accepted into the province and the criteria for their selection. Although the 1991 Canada-Québec Accord granted Québec more power over immigration, successive Québec premiers have continued to advocate for more authority over the matter.

With Trump’s re-election, Québec Premier François Legault—who is already implementing measures to limit immigration into the province—has expressed strong concerns that a new wave of Americans may seek refugee status in Québec. In response, he has established a group, which will potentially work with Ontario to pressure the federal government for a restrictive approach on its immigration policy. These nationwide concerns have polarized the political scene across Canada, with Liberal  Immigration Minister Marc Miller stating, “Not everyone is welcome here.”

Environmental Reverberations

Regarding environmental policy, Trump has voiced his wish to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change. During his first mandate, he had already rescinded the United States from this agreement but Biden reversed this action when he came to power. On climate change, Québec has been optimistic, as the state of Washington will soon join California and Québec’s linked carbon market, which aims to commonly control carbon’s price in hopes of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, with Trump leading the United States, climate change initiatives may be deprioritized. This would align with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s proposed plan, supported by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, to remove the carbon tax, a price given to carbon in order to entice companies to produce less carbon emissions.

Consequences on Abortion

Finally, abortion is an issue that has unsettled many Canadians. Indeed, during Trump’s last presidency, Roe v. Wade was overturned, giving states the power to implement their own abortion policies. This has led to abortion bans in numerous states. With Trump’s re-election, fears of a nationwide ban in the United States have escalated, especially as Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has voiced his support for this idea.

In response to the American election results, Québec Solidaire leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois has unanimously passed a motion in the Québec legislature regarding a commitment to actively protect abortion rights. However, other provinces have not followed suit. Furthermore, while provinces are responsible for health care, they have no control over criminal law, as it falls under federal jurisdiction according to Section 91(27) of the Constitution Act of 1867. Thus, while provinces may ensure access to abortions, they do not have control over its legal status. 

 As a matter of fact, the Supreme Court of Canada deemed in 1988 that Criminal Code restrictions regarding abortion were unconstitutional. However, if Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party wins the next election, abortion protection may be at greater risk. Indeed, while Poilievre has asserted that he is pro-choice, many members of his Conservative party are not. However, support for abortion in Canada remains widespread. As such, restrictions would likely be highly politically unpopular.

As such, Trump’s re-election may have profound effects on Canadian politics, particularly for foreign policy. However, while these dynamics have historically been significant, until Trump is officially sworn in on January 20th 2025, these speculations will remain unresolved.

Edited by Catriona Hayes Morris

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

Featured image by Abhinav Bhardwaj through unsplash