The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House after his first tumultuous term as President of the United States seemed unfathomable to the American Democratic voter. During his campaign, Trump was convicted of multiple felonies, all the while being hailed as a threat to American democracy, and nearly assassinated. Yet, on November 5th, following an intense presidential race, he overcame seemingly insurmountable odds to become the 47th President of the US, securing a landslide victory for the Republican party.

Trump’s first term was marked by bold claims and undelivered promises, from the Mexican border wall to eliminating the federal deficit to reviving US coal production. But what does a second Trump presidency entail for US domestic policy? Through the president-elect’s ‘America first’ mandate, promising to unite the country and achieve “record levels of success,” we can expect dramatic shifts in US policy regarding environmental regulation, manufacturing and trade, and immigration.

Energy Production and the Environment

Trump’s environmental stance is far from nuanced, as he has repeatedly falsely portrayed climate change as a “hoax.” During his first term, the Trump administration targeted institutions that opposed his purging of eco-friendly policies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Furthermore, in 2017, the US became the first nation to withdraw from the historic Paris Climate Agreement: a global commitment to accelerate efforts for a sustainable, low-carbon future. Picking up where he left off, Trump has promised to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement once again and appears poised to undo the Biden administration’s extensive climate policies, which promoted clean and sustainable energy sources and a shift away from non-renewables. 

Trump posits fossil fuel production as a panacea for America’s energy overdependence, particularly coal. Hence, we can expect the pressing issue of climate change to “take a backseat” in discussions regarding energy production. Mirroring 2016, Trump’s pledge to reinvigorate the coal mining sector was a focal point of his campaign in America’s Rust Belt states, like Pennsylvania – a crucial swing state where he secured victory. He has vowed to combat the “anti-American energy crusade” as he seeks to usher in a new epoch for coal manufacturing. 

America’s reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the last decade can largely be attributed to the decline in coal production in favour of natural gas and renewables, driven by strict legislation imposed by the EPA and the Biden administration. The environmental implications of coal mining span far beyond greenhouse gas emissions – Trump’s promise to resurrect American coal threatens the degradation of US freshwater reserves, agricultural land, forests, and biodiversity.

What to Expect From the Trump 2.0 Economy

Trump’s economic vision has been dominated by his plan to dramatically increase tariffs – an import tax on foreign goods – which he claims will boost the US economy. These tariffs could range from 10 to 20 per cent for most countries and triple that for imports from China, as Trump strives to pressure America’s trading partners. Though he asserts these new tariffs will benefit Americans and expand domestic production, ample economists disagree, citing the failure of the 25 per cent steel tariff he imposed in 2018, which proved ineffective in closing the federal trade deficit and protecting US producers.

In addition, Trump has blamed record US inflation on the Democratic party’s economic approach – which he refers to as ‘Bidenomics’– and promised to curb inflation if elected again. However, economists have strongly contested his gamble on tariffs. Even a tariff rate as low as 10 per cent is predicted to cause inflation to rise by 0.8 per cent in 2025. Consumer prices could increase by upwards of 5 per cent, and US companies are likely to suffer due to reduced domestic consumption. 

If Trump’s tariff policy is implemented, US consumers are expected to lose $78 billion in purchasing power annually, with low-income families bearing the greatest burden. On the other end of the spectrum, America’s ultra-rich are set to profit from Trump’s tax cuts. His economic plan also includes extending and making many of his 2017 tax cuts—meant to expire in 2025—permanent. These tax cuts are fundamental to his ‘America first’ framework, which aims to maintain “a business-friendly” administration.

Trump’s Immigration Agenda

During the second 2024 Presidential Debate, Trump proclaimed that illegal Haitian immigrants in Ohio were “eating the pets” of local residents. Though his farcical claim was swiftly disproven by several sources, it stands as a testament to Trump’s extreme migrant ideology, driven by the belief that illegal border crossings have intensified violence and crime.

Hence, Trump has placed immigration at the top of his priority list, vowing to undertake the largest mass deportation campaign in American history. This extensive operation would entail rounding up and arresting roughly eleven million undocumented individuals – up to 80% of whom have been living in the US for over a decade. 

The cornerstone of Trump’s immigration agenda remains the US-Mexico border as he seeks to realize his first-term promises. When asked about the costs of his deportation and border plans, the soon-to-be President declared, “It’s not a question of a price tag… there is no price tag.” Incredible sums of taxpayer money and a large-scale expansion of the federal law enforcement agency will be required to fulfill his deportation operation. Further concerns over mass deportation arise concerning potential domestic economic deterioration: the American Immigration Council reports that removing millions of workers in agriculture, construction, and hospitality could diminish the US GDP by $1.7 trillion.

What Lies Ahead 

Whether the President delivers on his promises to unite the nation and “make America better than it’s ever been” remains to be seen. Nevertheless, what we do know is that Trump’s wide-scale environmental rollbacks, protectionist economic agenda, and immigration upheavals will undoubtedly leave a lasting impact on US domestic policy.

Edited by Jane Malek

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

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