Almost two months ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared on CBC’s 22 Minutes. When shown the polls which indicated that the Conservatives had a 99 percent chance of winning the election and asked “Do you think you can do this?”, the Prime Minister quickly replied that when Canadians see Opposition Leader Pierre Pollievre’s position on climate change, women’s rights, the CBC, and gun control, they would “rise to the occasion”. Just a few weeks later, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to resign as Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister and announced that he would not be seeking re-election for his riding in Montreal “none of this is particularly surprising in light of Trudeau’s recent unpopularity.” Aside from a brief period in 2020, the Prime Minister has had approval ratings below 45 percent for the past six years, and only 34 per cent in February 2025.
Slowly, then all at once
On one level, the dislike of Trudeau seems to be deeply personal. The now infamous slogan that displays disparaging remarks covers flags, bumper stickers, and lots of other paraphernalia all across Canada. It betokens an intense, Trudeau-centric resentment. While some voters seem to dislike his personality, most voters seem to reject the ruling party for reasons that anyone paying attention to liberal democracies in the Western world is all too aware of. Recent global trends have shown that incumbents are increasingly losing to opposition parties. Economic challenges likely account for a large proportion of this trend. No doubt, several quality of life indicators have worsened since the Liberal Party came to power. The standard of living of Canadians has not kept up with other developing economies. Canada also suffers from a cost-of-living crisis and an incredibly expensive housing market. The rise of violent crime and challenges with immigration policy represent additional challenges.
That being said, Trudeau’s unpopularity has been endemic to his tenure, begging the question: Why resign now? What seems to have been a breaking point is the Prime Minister’s loss of control of his caucus. MPs have been calling for Trudeau to depart since this past summer. The outcry reached a fever pitch shortly after Chrystia Freeland resigned as Finance Minister. In her lengthy letter to the Prime Minister, Freeland cited concerns about fiscal disagreements in light of President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Canada. Trudeau’s resignation speech also cited his long-term status as a minority government, which made it difficult for him to exercise political power. The Liberals were previously in a coalition with the NDP, which ended in a semi-dramatic fashion later this past year. To paraphrase the Prime Minister in his speech announcing his resignation, voters deserve “a real choice” for the next election.
The Future
Two front runners stood among the ever-dwindling crowd of Liberal Party leader hopefuls. Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and central banker and finance executive turned politician Mark Carney. Carney and Freeland have tried to distance themselves from the deeply unpopular Trudeau government in an attempt to rebuild the image of the Liberal Party. On Carney’s “soft launch” on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, the banker brandished himself as an outsider, that is, despite him having been an advisor to the Liberal government on economic growth. Freeland, after her departure in late 2024, has now agreed to scale back some of the Carbon tax measures the government supported previously.
Carney managed to secure the Liberal Party nomination without much contest, winning with over 85 per cent of the vote. While at the time of writing, many pollsters still predict a Conservative win, such a scenario is increasingly uncertain. Recent polls have shown that with Carney as leader, the Liberal Party could even win a majority; an unthinkable result even just a few months ago.
The threats from the American Government vis-a-vis Canada becoming the “51st State” and tariffs have reinvigorated the Liberal Party. This wave of Canadian patriotism so far has favoured the Canadian left. Perhaps it is Pierre Pollievre’s more right-wing alignment that has associated him more with the Trump government and their comments on Canada. This is confounded by the perception that Mark Carney’s previous experience outside of politics as a successful professional in central and investment banking has inspired confidence among Canadians that he is the right man to tackle Canada’s economic challenges.
At the end of the 22 Minutes interview, Mark Critch (the host of the show) presented the Prime Minister with a flag, which, when slowly revealed, seemed to have the aforementioned derogatory anti-Trudeau slogan. For a moment, the Prime Minister looked bewildered before the full text was revealed to be “Good Luck Trudeau”. Certainly, in retrospect, the former leader of the Liberal Party could have used it.
Edited by Isabelle Monette
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.
Featured image by Beauty False obtained via flickr