The end of the Cold War saw the emergence of “bamboo diplomacy” within Vietnam’s foreign policy. This strategy has steered Vietnam’s transformation from a war-torn communist state into a dominant economic and political force in the Pacific. Bamboo diplomacy is rooted in the concepts of resilience and adaptability—qualities evoked by Nguyen Phu Truong, Vietnam’s late senior politician, who described this strategy by comparing it to the 30-foot-tall bamboo shoots of North Vietnam. These plants can endure harsh monsoons and intense droughts with their strong roots, stout trunks, and flexible branches protecting them. In essence, they symbolize Vietnam’s ability to navigate the great power rivalry of its neighbors while ensuring its own sovereignty and prosperity.

Positioned at the center of what many consider to be a new Cold War between China and the United States, Vietnam maintains good relations with both countries. This strategy has had enormous benefits for its economy and prevented it from becoming dependent on any one powerful state. However, as President Trump’s pro-tariff agenda comes to fruition, Vietnam’s $200 billion trading relationship with China puts it at risk of damaging punitive tariffs. Moreover, Vietnam also faces the threat of Chinese naval aggression off its coast, necessitating a careful reliance on US security in the Pacific. As these dangers increase, the next few years present a serious challenge for Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy.

Avoiding an American Trade War

As both the Biden and Trump administrations ramped up economic competition with China, Vietnam benefited by presenting itself as an alternative to Chinese production. Following the Biden Administration’s 2022 Chips and Science Act, the US has stepped up investment in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, positioning the country as a vital supplier of US technology. As tariffs on China increased, large tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Samsung also began investing in Vietnam, relocating their operations from China. These actions have prompted China to increase its foreign direct investment in Vietnam and expand imports of Vietnamese agriculture. 

With massive investments from Western and Chinese firms, Vietnam’s economy grew at an annual rate of almost 9% over the past decade, an incredible feat by modern standards. However, the country’s $123 billion trade surplus with the United States has sparked criticism from President Trump, who described Vietnam as the “single worst abuser” of US trade. As Trump levies a new 10% tariff on Chinese imports and announces “global reciprocal tariffs” for states taxing American goods, economists predict that Vietnam could be the President’s next victim in his quest to punish countries he believes have exploited the US economy. 

Adding to this danger is the close relationship between China and Vietnam. China’s investment in its southern neighbor has allowed Chinese companies to evade US tariffs by rerouting goods through Vietnam and, in some cases, even creating fake labels for Chinese products. To avoid tariffs, Hanoi has promised to crack down on these measures by enforcing stricter rules of origin on Chinese products. The government has also announced it is open to increasing agricultural imports with the United States. However, it remains to be seen whether these measures will placate President Trump, who many hope will instead focus on Chinese and European tariffs. As a result, Hanoi will have to decide whether to continue offering concessions to the US or brace for a trade war with its largest trading partner.

Pursuing Maritime Security

Much like its trade policy, Vietnam’s security policy finds a middle ground between Chinese and American cooperation. Domestically, Vietnam has strengthened its partnership with Chinese security forces to suppress pro-democracy opposition groups. However, China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea have pushed Vietnam to seek maritime cooperation with the US.

In recent years, China’s claim to Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ)–an internationally recognized 200-mile sea border granting exclusive resource rights)–has led to an increasingly violent clash for territory between the two nations. Incidents of harassment by the Chinese Navy, along with a competition to build artificial islands, have pushed Vietnam to upgrade its relationship with the US to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Vietnam’s highest designation for a foreign ally. This growing partnership has led to increased US naval activity in the South China Sea and increased US weapons sales to Vietnam. 

These developments risk angering China and putting strain on other aspects of the Sino-Vietnamese relationship. Vietnam’s new leader, Tô Lâm, strategically chose Beijing for his first international visit, signaling an effort to balance US military cooperation without straining  Hanoi’s relationship with China. Much like its dealings with the US on trade, this visit shows that Vietnam will have to work hard to maintain a positive relationship with Beijing while safeguarding its maritime security.

Conclusion

Walking the tightrope between the US and China has enabled Vietnam to attain both economic prosperity and national security. On its borders, the Chinese Navy is ramping up its aggressive tactics, and across the Pacific, the Trump administration is seeking to upend the free trade regime between America and its allies. Sustaining its ‘bamboo diplomacy’ will require Vietnam to navigate these trade and security with an increasingly small margin for error. Leaning too close to China or the US will unravel decades of diplomacy, breaking the flexible bamboo shoots that have protected the country’s prosperity and power for decades. As the Southeast  Asian nation braces for an uncertain future, the next few years will determine if Vietnam can remain a power broker between the world’s greatest powers or finally be forced to take a side.

Edited by Malin Breandeland

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

Image Generated by ChatGPT4