It is no doubt that Donald Trump’s return to office will bring major changes in the U.S. approach to foreign policy. During his first term, Trump’s “America First” strategy was largely unsuccessful, yielding few concessions at significant cost to the country’s relationships with its allies. Trump’s expressed territorial aspirations toward Greenland and Panama reflect a continuation, if not an intensification, of his unpredictable and unconventional diplomatic approach. However, the United States’ position has shifted greatly since 2017, in many ways stronger than it has been in more than a decade. The Biden administration is handing off a historically strong economy, with among the highest growth rates in the developed world in which the US has maintained its lead in technology, and a promising international landscape in which the U.S. possesses the upper hand in negotiations with enemies and allies alike. Regardless of Trump’s unorthodox diplomatic style, perhaps in spite of it, the U.S. is poised favourably in its foreign policy objectives during his term. 

Weaker Enemies

Beginning with the Middle East, the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, at one time occupying over 100,000 soldiers and more than $100 billion a year, is over. The liabilities of the position are gone, and these resources are free to be used elsewhere. U.S. adversaries have also been greatly weakened. Terrorist groups like ISIS have lost virtually all of their territory. The recent Israeli conflict has decimated Iranian proxies, thwarting the powerful regional position Iran spent years building. Russia, a key Iranian ally, is too bogged down in Ukraine to contribute significant support. The Assad regime in Syria has been replaced with HTS, a group that claims to be pursuing egalitarian governance.A ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, bringing an end to one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world. As a result, Gazans are returning to the wreckage of their city after 15 months of intense bombardment. It also means that Israel, an American ally and major recipient of American military aid, will have more resources free to consolidate and improve its strategic position, capitalizing on its victory. The major conflicts having been minimized, the most significant foreign policy objective for the United States in the region is now arguably preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a prospect that would pose a serious threat to America and its allies. In such negotiations, it seems that the U.S. will possess enormous negotiating leverage. 

China remains a formidable threat, but the U.S. economy has become much more decoupled from China’s, improving its ability to respond to Chinese aggression. The United States has extended its lead in technology, dominating in the explosive industries of A.I. and microchips. Additionally, the real estate bubble has significantly hurt China’s economy and slowed its growth. India is the fastest growing major economy, at an impressive 6% or more per year. Its relationship with the U.S. continues to strengthen As its partnership with the United States strengthens, it is developing into an effective balance to China in the region. Though an invasion of Taiwan is certainly still a looming risk, the U.S. would enter such a conflict in a relatively advantageous position. 

Desperate Allies

While America’s allies face significant challenges, this situation could potentially serve to further American interests.In Europe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a grinding stalemate. It seems unlikely that the current borders will change significantly, but thanks to Western support, this success has come at a massive cost to Russia in lives and resources. While it may seem like a failure, the prospects for the U.S. are promising. Russia may get the Eastern provinces, but independent Ukraine could be incorporated into the Western alliance network, further contributing to the containment of Russian influence. The aid to Ukraine has served not only as a critical geopolitical tool but also as an opportunity to revitalize NATO’s military-industrial base. However, the reduction in access to Russian oil and gas has placed significant strain on the economies of Western and Central Europe, with Germany experiencing some of the most severe repercussions. Meanwhile, the broader G7 group, including Japan, has struggled with stagnant or minimal economic growth, in stark contrast to the U.S., which has managed to sustain a relatively robust growth rate of approximately 3%. This divergence highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst global economic challenges.

This presents an opportunity for American strategic maneuvering, but the outcome will largely depend on the decisions made by policymakers.. The international situation might be an optimal chance to reinforce American alliances and reaffirm Europe’s commitment to the U.S. over China by taking action to help stimulate European economies and further develop their cooperation with U.S. businesses and consumers. At the same time, it may also prove relatively receptive a Trumpian nationalist diplomacy, with Western allies more willing to grant concessions to the United States due to their weaker position. However, it is important to note that this strategy carries the risk of alienating Europe, potentially driving it closer to China, which is eager to meet Europe’s economic needs in exchange for greater access to its markets. Broad tariffs resembling the magnitude of those he has described would further jeopardize the possibility of European acquiescence. The economic cost, which could be substantial for both the U.S. and its trading partners, may prompt allies to hesitate in further investing in their relationship with a country they perceive as consistently unreliable. President Trump has routinely acted erratically, without adherence to laws or the truth. Foreign leaders may remember when he attempted to extort Ukraine for information that could hurt Joe Biden, his political opponent, or his provocation of a riot in the U.S. capital after losing the 2020 election and refusal to admit that Biden had won legitimately. He has routinely emphasized his “America First” outlook on foreign policy. This concern is likely intensified by the president’s repeated remarks after his victory, in which he expressed territorial ambitions toward Greenland, Panama, and, to a lesser extent, Canada.

Despite this, many Western and European countries are electing far-right governments and strong-man leaders that have world views which align closely with Trump’s. Since 2014, there has been an influx of millions of migrants from the Middle East, including over a million Syrians in 2015 alone, the majority of whom were settled in Central and Eastern European countries. This, along with the aforementioned economic stagnation, has provoked a major shift to the right across the continent reminiscent of the same forces that helped elect Trump himself. Austria and Croatia, for instance, have both recently elected right-wing governments that have espoused relaxed perspectives on Russia and skepticism of international organizations, like the E.U., that are reminiscent of views expressed by the former president, in line with other Eastern E.U. countries like Slovakia or the Czech Republic. Italy and Finland too are led by far-right governments. Canada is poised to elect the Conservatives in a landslide, and Germany’s AfD is polling higher than all but the CDU. We have already witnessed a willingness from these figures, like Hungary’s Victor Orban, to cooperate with Trump on issues like immigration and the deemphasizing of international organizations. Values aside, the Trump administration could scarcely ask for a more hospitable environment for its right-wing agenda; we should expect a much more impactful second term on the diplomatic front. 

Edited by Samrawit Terrefe

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

Featured image by Trump white House obtained via Flickr