Friday, January 10th, marked the beginning of supreme leader Nicolás Maduro’s third consecutive term as President of Venezuela, extending his hold on power until 2031. His inauguration came following months of turmoil and international controversy regarding Venezuela’s July 2024 presidential elections, as foreign and domestic opposition denounced Maduro’s victory as illegitimate and defiant to the free world.
Venezuela, once a functioning and stable democracy throughout the 1980s, is now among the least democratic and free in the Western hemisphere. The 2023 Global State of Democracy Report ranked Venezuela 173rd globally on the rule of law, judging factors such as electoral integrity, exercise of political power, judicial independence, political violence, and security.
The status quo in Venezuela threatens an international crisis as global actors—including the G7, the United Nations, and neighbouring democracies alike—demand an end to Maduro’s political persecution. The regime’s fundamentally anti-democratic governance has propelled the nation into an “unparalleled” economic and human rights catastrophe, catalyzing the continent’s most extensive refugee diaspora. Maduro’s fraudulent electoral malpractice prolongs Venezuela’s state of democratic paralysis—one which the nation must transcend to address its humanitarian crisis and rebuild itself comprehensively.
The 2024 Election Cycle
Broad claims from pro-democracy actors that Maduro stole the elections stem from his plummeting popularity and his opposition’s widely successful, peaceful, and democratic campaign. Just days before Venezuela’s presidential elections on July 28th, 2024, several polls estimated Maduro’s approval rating to be between 12.5 percent and 25 percent—nearing his lowest recorded ratings. Meanwhile, holding 59 percent, opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia was shown to be the clear favourite.
Monumental public support garnered by the opposition and verified evidence of voting tally receipts indicated González as the clear winner. Yet, the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the victor, allegedly capturing 51 per cent of the vote to González’s 43 per cent. Maduro failed to produce any empirical evidence supporting his electoral victory, relying on his state-controlled organs to ratify the results and uphold his authority.
Global democratic powers firmly recognize González as the legitimate president-elect. Many have responded by imposing heavy sanctions on members of Maduro’s regime, none more so than Washington. The lack of attendance at Maduro’s inauguration by democratic Latin American leaders, notably Brazilian and Colombian heads of state, demonstrated Maduro’s deteriorating regional standing.
Mechanisms of Power Retention
Maduro has safeguarded his position as President of Venezuela through repressive, coercive, and arbitrary targeting of opposition, whether it be individuals, organizations, or institutions. Rarely has Maduro’s use of punitive force been as unmistakable as in the 2024 election cycle.
The months following Venezuela’s summer elections saw Maduro’s regime accelerate its attacks against opposition journalists, media, grassroots organizations, and politicians. A Human Rights Council report from September 2024 documented a sharp increase in human rights violations among Maduro’s domestic adversaries—including torture, sexual violence, and enforced disappearances—following the electoral cycle.
In October 2024, a large number of Venezuelan journalists and human rights activists had their passports inexplicably cancelled or confiscated at airports, preventing pro-democracy Venezuelan actors abroad from mobilizing alongside domestic forces.
Arbitrary detention remains a fundamental mechanism of Maduro’s crackdown on opposition. On January 4th, National Assembly leader Jorge Rodriguez announced orders for González’s immediate arrest, offering a US$100,000 reward.
The regime’s collective persecution aims not only to put down its visible opposition but also to neutralize further uprisings by instilling fear into the Venezuelan population. Mounting support positing González as Venezuela’s de jure leader—both in and outside of national borders—has done little to alter Maduro’s grip on the Venezuelan military, national assembly, and judicial council.
The Consequences of ‘Madurismo’
Maduro’s persistent political repression and protectionist policies have devastated Venezuela’s economy. As a century-long petrostate, Venezuela’s hefty economic reliance on oil exports—accounting for roughly 60 per cent of the government’s budget—has driven policies that leave it vulnerable to global shocks, exemplified by the plunge in crude oil between 2014 and 2016. Oil prices and production have steadily declined, reaching a 76-year low point in 2020. Following the elections, Venezuelan inflation skyrocketed to an alarming 46 per cent in September 2024.
The Venezuelan people’s individual rights, political participation, and access to justice have consequently plummeted to record lows since Maduro rose to power. Venezuela’s human rights and economic upheaval have been a harbinger of the country’s severe refugee diaspora.
Nearly one-quarter of its population has fled since 2015 as the economy remains stagnant. The exodus of roughly 8 million refugees has been compounded by its crippling humanitarian crisis, spurring “the largest external displacement crisis” in the continent’s recent history. Approximately 20,000 Venezuelans crossed the perilous Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama on their way out of Venezuela following Maduro’s electoral triumph, marking a 69 per cent jump from months prior. Venezuela’s refugee crisis further jeopardizes its economic productivity, as the exodus of skilled labourers reduces domestic consumption, discourages foreign investment, and strains public services.
What lies ahead?
Maduro has promised to make his third term in office a period of “peace, prosperity, and new democracy,” beginning with his broad proposals for constitutional and economic reforms geared at advancing participation and sustainable development. Nevertheless, much work remains to be done. In the post-electoral period, Venezuela still finds itself entrenched in a state of democratic paralysis, as torture, political killings, and enforced disappearances persist under Maduro’s rule.
What is clear, however, is the Venezuelan population’s desire to free themselves of their repressive dictatorship. A solution to the Venezuelan crisis requires the full and meaningful involvement of domestic civil society and the unwavering support of international democratic actors.
Edited by Andrea Pupovac
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.
Featured image by Wikimedia Commons
