Many Americans believed Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential victory to be a Republican fluke. In the years following his first stint in office, Trump-backed Republican candidates in Congress were continuously defeated, signalling an end to his contentious era. Yet, the 2024 presidential elections saw Trump become the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since 2004, while his party secured a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives.
The Democratic defeat and Trump’s imminent return point to substantial shifts in the American political landscape, raising several questions. Is Trump’s sweeping presidential triumph indicative of a broader Republican resurgence? Or does the election signal a decline of the American Democratic Party?
Internal Democratic Failures
Post-election, Democratic discourse has been centred around why so many Americans voted for Trump. Perhaps the more pressing question to ask would be why those voters rejected the Democratic Party. The lack of self-reflection and awareness throughout President Biden’s term and the race for the White House alienated many of its supporters and generated friction within the Democratic campaign.
One of the party’s earliest blunders came in April 2023, when Biden declared his campaign for the 2024 elections. Data from January 2022 reveals that, over a year before Biden announced his reelection bid, less than half of Democratic voters wanted him reelected—a sentiment that only grew stronger as the election cycle advanced.
Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips was one of many Democrats who openly advocated for the appointment of a primary candidate over a second Biden campaign. He sounded early alarm bells within the Democratic Party, warning that Trump would likely outgun Biden, were they to face off a second time. Phillips claimed that the Democratic National Committee repressed competition within the party in a manner “antithetical to democracy,” precluding a primary debate and leaving blue voters with only one option.
Biden and Trump’s 2024 presidential debate marked a crucial turning point in the Democratic electoral campaign. Biden’s now-infamous nationally broadcasted performance raised monumental concerns regarding his physical and cognitive condition, as millions of Americans witnessed “the encapsulation of the president by his team.” In turn, this immediately fueled internal pressure for the incumbent Biden to abandon his presidential bid.
Biden’s late exit from the presidential race and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement–just three months before the election–caused significant upheaval among Democrats. The sudden change and subsequent criticism of Harris, who was largely unseasoned in Republican territory, upended the party’s electoral campaign.
The Democrats’ Rising Unpopularity Among the Working Class
Kamala Harris successfully campaigned with American unions, from the United Steelworkers to the Federation of Teachers, winning more union voters than Biden in 2020. Yet, she failed to harness the support of the non-union working class, losing significant ground among a vital demographic.
Harris’ struggle to consolidate a solid voting base among working class Americans reflects broader changes in public sentiment regarding the Democratic Party. Survey data reveals that American voters’ perception of the Democrats since 1948 has shifted away from the party of the working class and the poor to “the party of minority advocacy.” As Senator Bernie Sanders stated, “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.”
The Democratic Party’s deteriorating standing among the working class and the broader American electorate can be attributed to its increasingly progressive left-wing rhetoric. This ideological shift, driven by leftward movements by senior political figures, misaligned with many of the party’s voters’ interests. America’s Democratic political elites–comprising judges, lobbyists, lawyers, and other individuals carrying significant influence over policy agendas–predominantly hold views far to the left of the average voter.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party pushed what many voters perceived as condescending anti-Trump rhetoric, which demonized his supporters and framed Republicans as being largely uneducated, racist, or sexist. Biden’s characterization of Trump supporters as “garbage” fueled Republican voters’ disdain for Democratic leaders. Condemnation of the opposition proved to be a subpar strategy for success, ultimately driving resentment toward Harris’ campaign and further alienating her support base.
Shifting Demographics
The Democrats not only lost support from working class Americans but also from Black and Latino men, historically central to the Democrat voter core. Trump capitalized on the divide between Democratic elites and non-college-educated and lower-income individuals, channeling their financial frustrations to swing voter demographics.
Among the most salient populations the Democratic Party failed to sway were young men, particularly minorities. While Biden won the votes of young men by double digits in 2020, Trump claimed this demographic outright in 2024. Many young males felt the Democrats addressed them as a category rather than as individual citizens “possessed of agency.” They expressed priorities that did not correlate with the Democrats’ gendered and racial framing of the election but rather aligned more closely with the interests of the working class.
In contrast, Republican efforts targeting young male voters proved highly effective, spearheaded by influential conservative figures such as Elon Musk and Joe Rogan. Two weeks before election day, Trump starred on the Joe Rogan Podcast, which garnered over fifty million views and bolstered the Republican support base, particularly young white men. Though Harris was set to follow Trump on Rogan’s show, the Democratic party pulled the plug on the idea due to concerns over backlash. Cancelling her appearance ultimately weakened her standing among young men.
Is the U.S. really shifting to the Right?
It’s easy to see why some might believe so. The Republican Party undoubtedly made quantitative gains across nearly every demographic, guided by its homogeneous economic message. Despite Harris’ appointment of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her Vice Presidential candidate–seeking to secure voters in the Midwest–Trump snagged the votes in Michigan and Wisconsin. Democrats only narrowly won Minnesota. Even traditionally blue states such as New Jersey and Illinois observed substantial swings to the right.
Still, the exact implications of the election’s outcome on the American political sphere are shrouded in uncertainty. The Democratic defeat and growing Republican advantage suggest an all-out rightward shift. However, to American voters, the Democrats seem to have veered much farther to the left than the Republicans to the right. Analysts argue moderate voters did not abandon the Democratic party; an increasingly progressive ideology drove them away. Therefore, the party should perceive Trump’s victory not as an anomaly but as a crucial wake-up call.
For the first time since the 1800s, America’s incumbent party has been unsuccessful in defending its hold on power in three consecutive elections. This trend does not necessarily denote ideological shifts; rather, it is rooted within a surge of anti-incumbency across developed Democracies worldwide. Hence, some claim the election results were sealed “regardless of the messenger or the message.” America’s anti-incumbent sentiment challenges both notions of a Republican resurgence and a Democratic retreat, instead suggesting underlying barriers that every president-elect has failed to overcome—including Trump himself in 2020.
Edited by Jane Malek
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.
Featured image by CNN