On November 14th, three days before the highly anticipated COP29 summit, President Javier Milei made the bold decision to withdraw Argentina’s delegation, thereby abruptly removing the nation from the global platform dedicated to foster discussion regarding the escalating climate crisis. Milei’s decision to disregard the conference signifies Argentina’s vacancy from the table while other states negotiate the surmounting climate crisis and many other critical fields including trade, digitalisation, human development, agriculture, and health. 

Many worry this withdrawal indicates the country wishes to abandon international climate agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord. As newly elected Donald Trump supports quite a similar policy direction, Milei’s climate skepticism and reticence to engage in meaningful discussions on the topic could go unnoticed, or perhaps even gain backing. Nevertheless, an Argentinian withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord requires a majority vote in Parliament, a significant hurdle given Milei’s party occupies less than a fifth of seats in the lower house. Still, the mere possibility of a withdrawal raises alarms,both within Argentina and among nations vulnerable to climate change. This uncertainty surrounding Milei’s future climate policy forces observers to wonder what direction Argentina’s climate policy will take in the years ahead.

 Libertarian Reforms at Odds with Argentina’s Climate Needs 

Milei’s libertarian ideology shapes every corner of his mandate, with a  focus on sharply reducing government spending in an effort to curb Argentina’s high inflation. Including slashing state subsidies for fuel, halving the number of government ministries, he plans on privatizing the state airline, postal service, railways, and national water supplier. Similarly, his climate policy reflects libertarian principles. He has attempted to relax restrictions on mining near glaciers, remove protections against deforestation and cut funds for action against forest fires. He further dismisses climate change as a ‘socialist lie,’ emphasizing his opinion that climate change is not a threat to Argentinians, and that preventing climate change would conflict with his libertarian economic agenda. 

How Argentina Could Be Impacted by Climate Change

Despite President Milei’s opinion, Argentina faces significant risks from climate change. As a coastal state, Argentina is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and warming oceans, the displacement of several thousand Argentinians and potential disruptions of the fishing industry. This industry contributes 2.3 million pesos to the Argentinian economy and is particularly accessible to low-income Argentinians, meaning its failure will have a severe impact on those in need. Climate scientists also predict that more severe droughts will cause water demand to increase by 11.1 per cent, harming the agricultural sector. With these two sectors impacted by climate change, Argentina stands to lose 8% of its GDP. 

As Milei’s mandates prioritize growth through privatization and deregulation rather than emphasizing sustainability, climate change reports caution that the growing threat of climate could undermine his efforts to revitalize the Argentinian economy. If the world does not reach a net-zero system to combat rising temperatures, Argentina would suffer from great losses in food production, thereby greatly impacting its economy and rendering null President Milei’s growth oriented policy. As the Southern American State ranked 32nd in global carbon emissions in 2022, it remains crucial for Milei and future leaders to hang on to global commitments for  climate action. 

What Lies Ahead: Argentina’s Uncertain Path on Climate Policy 

As of now, Milei has not formally declared plans to withdraw Argentina from any international climate agreements, but other countries are pre-emptively cautioning him against this action. Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Buenos Aires to encourage Milei to align with the broader goals of the G20. Their meeting took place against the backdrop of the Mercosur-EU trade negotiations, as the COP29 summit was still in session and impending talks on development and climate change scheduled in Rio de Janeiro. While a sole bilateral negotiation with Macron may not be enough to shift Milei’s stance, sustained pressure from other G20 leaders could compel Milei to soften his stance and remain in line with the alliance’s environmental strategies as complying with these superpowers remains in Argentina’s best economic interests.

Argentina’s climate policy therefore remains greatly uncertain. President Milei’s consistent climate change denial and commitment to creating economic privatisation policies emphasize his reluctance to prioritize environmental issues. Yet, these tendencies are likely to face resistance, as domestic parliamentary oversight and  international actors remain committed to greener politics.The way he decides to balance these competing pressures and constraints will shape Argentina’s environmental trajectory and its role on the international stage. 

Edited by Andrea Pupovac

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

Featured image by the Legislative Assembly of Argentina, obtained through Wikimedia commons