Since taking office in 2010, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has redefined Hungary’s political system on his own terms, promoting what he calls “illiberal democracy”—a system where democratic institutions function to maintain the ruling party’s power. While the European Union’s democratic framework emphasizes civil rights, the rule of law, and collective governance, Orban’s vision for Hungary clashes with these principles. 

Betting on a rising tide of right-wing populism across Europe and beyond, Orban aims to challenge the European Union’s (EU) influence from within. By aligning with other nationalist figures, Orbán aspires to make Hungary a leading nation in a shift toward a more authoritarian Europe. If this gamble pays off, Orbán and his allies will have the power to redefine the European bloc, shifting it away from the decades-long liberal ideals of unity and cooperation toward a coalition grounded in nationalism and state sovereignty.

Orbán’s Domestic Influence

Domestically, Orbán has steadily reshaped Hungary’s political landscape, centralizing his power and limiting opposition. Through a series of legal and political reforms, he and his party have increased their power over once-independent Hungarian institutions, including the judiciary and state legislature. Under Orbán’s leadership, Hungary’s media landscape has shifted significantly, with pro-government ownership dominating news outlets. These actions, combined with restrictive laws on NGOs, aim to reinforce Hungary’s vision of an ‘illiberal democracy,’ allowing Orbán to sustain his influence while reducing avenues for internal dissent.

His authoritarian chokehold is stifling democratic expression in Hungary, provoking concern among EU leaders. Yet, his supporters see these efforts as a necessary defense of Hungary’s sovereignty and cultural identity, appealing to nationalists who view the EU’s influence as a threat to Hungary’s independence.

Conflicts with the European Union

Orbán’s relationship with the EU is fraught, as his policies often contradict the EU’s democratic norms. Key EU principles–like free press, judicial independence, and protections for refugees–conflict with Orbán’s governance. His government has implemented measures like the 2024 Sovereignty Law, allowing the prosecution of individuals and groups accused of using foreign funding to influence Hungarian politics. The European Commission (EC) contends this law undermines constitutional freedoms and facilitates crackdowns on opposition groups, prompting the EC to levy lawsuits and sanctions against Hungary.

 To counter Orbán’s influence, the EC has withheld billions of euros in funding from Hungary and issued legal challenges aimed at pressuring Orbán’s administration to adhere to EU standards. Despite these measures, Orbán has used Hungary’s EU membership to undermine certain policies, particularly on immigration and aid for Ukraine. While these tactics hurt Hungary’s EU relations, Orbán has been able to leverage his alliances with right-wing parties in the European Parliament to retain Hungary’s membership in the EU while resisting pressure for democratic reforms.

Building International Alliances Beyond Europe

As tensions with the EU escalate, Orbán has sought allies outside the EU. Over the past year, he has strengthened ties with nationalist leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. To cement these partnerships, Orbán has eased restrictions on Russian nationals and permitted Chinese police to operate within Hungary. 

This network of international alliances not only counters the influence of pro-democracy EU leaders but also positions Orbán as a prominent figure among far-right leaders globally. By aligning himself with authoritarians outside of Europe, Orbán aims to establish himself as a power broker in a future autocratic international order. His rhetoric, including his recent statement claiming he aims to “conquer” Europe, reflects his ambitions to reshape the global landscape of power and influence. 

Doubling down on Ukraine

Orbán’s most significant clash with the EU concerns the Ukraine war. While the EU staunchly supports Ukraine’s defense, Orbán has opposed this support, seeking a peace deal with Putin despite widespread condemnation. He has used Hungary’s position within the EU to delay Western support, stalling funds for Ukraine’s defense and Sweden’s NATO membership bid to weaken EU consensus. Now, with a $50 billion loan to Ukraine in the works–backed by a U.S. offer of $20 billion contingent on extending the freeze on Russian assets– Orbán has made his most audacious move yet. 

Orbán vetoed this extension, indicating he would wait for the U.S. election, which jeopardizes the stability of the loan, as these assets could be unfrozen in six months. Orbán’s flat-out refusal, while consistent with past delays in Ukraine aid, represents a serious escalation of his anti-EU agenda. It prompted EC President Von der Leyen to blame him for undermining EU unity, with calls to strip Hungary of voting rights growing louder, further isolating Orbán within the European bloc.

Future Implications for Hungary- EU relations

The outcome of the U.S. election will undoubtedly strengthen Orbán’s stance within the EU. Donald Trump’s victory will bolster Orbán’s vision of a right-wing Europe, giving Orban a nationalist ally that will support negotiations with Putin and potentially hinder the EU’s unity on democratic and security issues. The Hungarian leader now aims to enhance his influence within Europe by positioning himself as the EU’s diplomatic link to Donald Trump. As Trump’s victory shows, Orbán’s fight against democratic norms and forging of new alliances aligns with a broader right-wing surge. His Patriots for Europe alliance achieved large gains in June’s European Parliament elections, signaling the rise of potential allies in European leadership. As these nationalist politicians continue to gain ground, the debate over Europe’s political future is only intensifying.

Edited by Malin Braendeland

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.

Featured image by Channel 4 News