In international relations, a security dilemma refers to a situation where a state’s increase in its capabilities – in technology or defence – is perceived as a threat by a rival, which spurs their own capabilities development, resulting in an arms race. Historically, this phenomenon has depended on government-funded research in both the public and private spheres, thereby facilitating the development of proven capabilities, such as a new form of weapon. Once proven, procurement and increased capabilities occur. Today, as countries race to develop their AI capabilities, venture capital speculation in defence technology is creating a security dilemma before capabilities actually exist, driven by market logic rather than strategic necessity. This article does not suggest that speculation replaces traditional security dilemmas, but rather that it introduces novel mechanisms —market signals and venture capital speculation —through which the same logic of reciprocal insecurity operates.