Across the Levant, billows of smoke, piercing air-raid sirens, and buildings collapsed into rubble mark the re-emergence of a destructive regional conflict. On October 1st, 2024, Israel launched its invasion into southern Lebanon. Its opponent–rather than the Lebanese state and military itself–is Hezbollah (“The Party of God”), a Shia-majority hybrid political party and military group operating from Lebanon.
Hezbollah is the most heavily armed non-state actor in the world, boasting military capabilities far greater than Lebanon’s army, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The Hezbollah-Israel war has effectively sidelined the LAF within its own borders, raising the question: how has a non-state actor come to dominate Lebanese affairs and become a major regional power, shaping conflicts and the balance of power in the Middle East?
The Rise of Hezbollah: Achieving Legitimacy
Hezbollah’s emergence and path to achieving its status as a “state within a state” are rooted in the Middle East’s ever-evolving and turbulent geopolitical landscape. Its formation in 1982 was spearheaded by its eventual leader, Hassan Nasrallah, driven by an interplay of factors such as the Lebanese Civil War, Israel’s subsequent invasion, and the 1979 Iranian Revolution – promoting Shia unification.
Hezbollah’s role in liberating southern Lebanon from Israeli occupation garnered it significant legitimacy. It consolidated its domestic support by providing public services such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education – creating avenues for employment for its loyal supporters. Hezbollah also enjoys structural legitimacy, being represented in Parliament since 1992 and at the Council of Ministers since 2005.
Military Superiority Through Proxy Support
Hezbollah’s military dominance can be traced back to the 1989 Ta’if Agreement, a post-war settlement mandating the disarmament of several Lebanese militias, with Hezbollah being the exception. A cornerstone of the agreement was its objective to abolish political sectarianism, which drove fragmentation within Lebanon’s diverse population. Despite attempting to balance political power between Christian and Muslim populations, sectarian dynamics continue to fuel tension within Lebanese politics.
A crucial guiding force behind Hezbollah’s military evolution has been its proxy support from Iran, which posits Hezbollah as a centrepiece to its Shia crescent of influence in the Middle East. Iran has since been Hezbollah’s primary purveyor of weapons and military support, which has seen it become “the crown jewel” of Iran’s proxies, with an arsenal of weapons more extensive than most states. Bashar Al-Assad’s Syrian regime has also been fundamental in bolstering Hezbollah, facilitating weapon transfers with Iran.
Hezbollah’s hybrid status allows it to enjoy state legitimacy while operating outside its control, enabling it to exercise authority without institutional accountability. Therefore, Lebanon’s post-war political order has been characterized by the “hybridization of security governance,” as Hezbollah holds national security legitimacy and autonomy. Hezbollah’s armed status has been legitimized by “the army, the people, and the resistance” – a security formula enshrined in the Council of Ministers since 2008, granting it freedom to use force under the guise of national security.
Hezbollah’s Role in Shaping Regional Conflicts
Hezbollah played a vital role in the Syrian Civil War, supporting Iranian forces in safeguarding Assad’s regime. It entered the conflict in 2011 and was crucial in crushing Islamic militant groups and rebel militias, consolidating Assad’s control and Iran’s regional Shia sphere of influence.
The group’s greatest military foe is Israel, dating back to its occupation of southern Lebanon in 1978. Since its conception, Hezbollah’s military wing has been “a lynchpin of [Iran’s] regional strategy,” strategically positioned on Israel’s northern border with a vast arsenal of weapons. Hezbollah’s updated manifesto, released in 2009, reaffirms its commitment to the destruction of the Israeli state. Therefore, Hezbollah’s military wing has been a vital proxy for Iran.
Since 2006, it has engaged in numerous conflicts with Israel, launching rockets and drone strikes and engaging in guerilla warfare across the border. Following the October 7th terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas, Nasrallah mobilized militarily against Israel, with both sides exchanging fire on “a nearly daily basis.” With the resulting Hezbollah-Israel conflict now raging, Benjamin Netanyahu has warned the Lebanese people that they will suffer destruction similar to that seen in Gaza unless they take action against Hezbollah.
The LAF’s Precarious Position
Unlike Hezbollah’s military wing–which several states label as a terrorist organization–the LAF maintains strong relationships with global powers such as the United States, which has committed over $3 billion to the LAF since 2006. Under the Obama Administration, the US ramped up its aid, aiming to counter Hezbollah’s influence. Furthermore, the LAF has historically sought to maintain positive relations with Israel; it avoids engaging in conflict with its neighbour, and Israel has even apologized for casualties inflicted upon its troops through strikes on Hezbollah targets.
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict leaves the LAF in a precarious position. Supporting Hezbollah in the conflict would damage its reputation and international ties, possibly spurring a broader Israeli-Lebanese conflict. On the contrary, standing by while Israel once again invades through its southern border benefits neither the LAF nor the Lebanese people. The LAF has made it clear that it does not wish to intervene. Several Lebanese military officials have stated that it should preserve a neutral position to maintain internal cohesion and peace, mediating between the diverse sects that comprise the Lebanese population.
The Hezbollah-Israel War: Regional ImplicationsHezbollah has continuously suffered substantial blows to its leadership since Nasrallah’s assassination, as Hashem Safieddine–Nasrallah’s alleged successor–was killed in an Israeli strike on October 23rd. The prospect of failure in conflict with Israel threatens Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy, as its diminishing administrative capacity jeopardizes the economic conditions of thousands of Lebanese. A 2024 Arab Barometer poll revealed that Hezbollah’s domestic support is already low despite the influence it holds. Therefore, if Israel succeeds in destroying Hezbollah–or at least in crippling it severely–a power vacuum will likely emerge within Hezbollah’s chain of command and the Lebanese political landscape. Accordingly, Hezbollah’s deterioration may prompt Iran to increasingly shift its resources and attention to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have also launched attacks at Israel since Hamas’ invasion in October 2023.
Edited by Jane Malek
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Science or the Political Science Students’ Association.
Featured image by Khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
